Yearly Archives: 2024
Is China heading for some kind of currency or financial crisis?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy | 4th April 2024Is #China heading for some kind of financial or #currency crisis? In the short term, no. But over the medium- to longer-term, the possibility of a sharp fall in the value of the #renminbi against other currencies, accompanied by large falls in the values of other Chinese assets, can’t be ruled out. China hasn’t been […]
The next four years will be difficult for Tasmania
News, Tasmania | 27th March 2024Op-ed in the Hobart Mercury newspaper, 27th March 2024 The Liberals were the biggest losers in Saturday’s election, as indicated by the 12 percentage point swing against them. But they still emerged with the largest number of seats, and provided they can persuade the two left-leaning independents and the Jacqui Lambie Network’s members (whoever they […]
Some initial reflections on the outcome of the 2024 Tasmanian State election
Australian Society and Politics, Tasmania | 24th March 2024Some initial reflections on the Tasmanian election results (based on figures posted on the Tasmanian Electoral Commission website as of 9am Sunday morning, 24th March). First, the Liberals were the biggest losers at the election. Their share of the primary vote fell by 12.0 pc pts, the second-largest swing against them ever recorded (exceeded only […]
Tasmania’s fiscal position
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, Tasmania | 24th March 2024Saul Eslake talks to ABC Radio Hobart’s “Mornings” presenter Leon Compton about the condition of Tasmania’s budget and public finances, and what the impact of the spending promises made by the contenders in the 23 March election might mean for those.
Productivity, Tax Reform and ‘Peak China’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Productivity, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 13th March 2024Talk to a gathering of parliamentarians, business leaders and others from the UK and Australia, in Melbourne, on Wednesday 13th March 2024 PRODUCTIVITY, TAX REFORM & ‘PEAK CHINA’ TALK TO COOK SOCIETY, 13th MARCH 2024 by Saul Eslake Principal, Corinna Economic Advisory Download PDF version Productivity Productivity – what we get by way of […]
Tasmania – lost opportunities
Tasmania | 12th March 2024Recent data releases from both the Australian Bureau of Statistics and private sector surveys seem to suggest that Tasmania may be on the cusp of – or indeed may already have entered – a cycle like the ones we experienced in the 1990s, and again between 2010 and 2015 – in which declining (or […]
The Tasmanian Economy
Tasmania | 29th February 2024Saul’s presentation to the CEDA (Committee for Economic Development of Australia) Annual Economic & Political Outlook conference, Hobart, 29th February 2024