SAUL ESLAKE

Economist

SAUL ESLAKE

‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, consultant, speaker,
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

ANZ’s Eslake highlights focus on China


Profile | 7th August 2009

Jordan Chong | Sydney Morning Herald | 7th August 2009

Outgoing ANZ Banking Group Ltd chief economist Saul Eslake says the enormous thirst for knowledge about China has been one of the biggest changes he has seen during his 14 years in the job.

Mr Eslake, who leaves the bank next week, said all anybody wanted to talk about when he started in 1995 was what was happening in Japan and the US.

But the rapid rise in interest in Asia, particularly China, represents both an opportunity for Australian businesses and a potentially tricky issue for lawmakers.

“The growing importance of China to our economic prosperity presents challenges to our overall political and economic strategy that our previous reliance on Japan never did,” Mr Eslake told AAP in an interview.

“We may, on occasion, be forced to think about potential divergences between what is in our economic interest and what is in our geopolitical interest in a way we’ve never had to before.”

Since he took the chief economist’s chair at ANZ, Australia has confronted the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 2001 dot com bust and the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks.

And of course, there has the great global recession of 2008/09.

Another chief economist who has worked through the same events is the National Australia Bank’s Alan Oster, who has held his post since 1992 and knew Mr Eslake when the pair worked together at the Department of Treasury.

He said the role of chief economist always presented new challenges.

“People say why are you still doing the same job and the answer to that is that because the job changes all the time because the conditions change all the time,” Mr Oster said.

Bill Evans has been chief economist at Westpac Banking Corporation since 1991. He described his counterpart at ANZ as someone whose views “you needed to be aware of” because they were “generally pretty accurate”.

“He did probably have the loudest voice in warning that the government needed to be conservative with regard to use of the surplus funds during the boom period and of course that’s proved to be an important support for the Australian economy now,” Mr Evans said.

Mr Evans said economics had always featured prominently in the local media, given the high proportion of variable rate mortgages held in Australia, a volatile domestic currency and the focus on equity markets due to superannuation investment.

ANZ’s Mr Eslake agrees, adding that he believes the level of public interest in economic matters in Australia was high compared with other countries, and points to the role economic policy has played in election campaigns “at least since the 1970s”.

Which leads to the famous incident with former Treasurer Peter Costello in 2002.

According to Mr Eslake’s account, Mr Costello rang the bank’s then chief executive to threaten “regulatory action that ANZ would not like” after some comments he made at an Institute of Chartered Accountants conference in Tasmania.

Asked by a journalist at the conference if the Howard government had engaged in any creative accounting, Mr Eslake replied that yes it had and proceeded to give three examples before adding that they were no worse than any previous government.

“To the extent that he had a problem with it he might have either rung me directly or had one of his flunkies ring me, rather than – as he actually did – ring up the CEO, ring up my boss and threaten to use his regulatory powers in an attempt to silence me,” Mr Eslake said.

“I know that sort of thing goes on in dictatorships, I didn’t think it would go on in Australia.”

Mr Eslake will join the Grattan Institute think tank on August 11, where he will focus on productivity issues.

He will also continue to champion Tasmania’s bid to be part of the AFL competition, dismissing calls that his home state’s economy was too small to support a team.

But Mr Eslake was not hopeful of that happening while AFL chief executive Andrew Demetriou “has any say in it, unfortunately”.

“I increasingly come round to the belief – I can’t prove it – that it’s basically prejudice and contempt towards Tasmania that is preventing the AFL from becoming the truly national competition that it should be,” Mr Eslake said.

One Melbourne-based ANZ employee said staff will particularly miss Mr Eslake’s engaging presentations, which were almost always to full houses.

“You definitely had to get in early because everyone was keen to hear what he had to say,” the employee said.

“You wanted to be in the room.”

SPEAKING ENGAGEMENT

Speaking Engagement | Boardroom Advisory | Commissioned Report | Expert Witness



Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.



“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

Sheryle Bagwell, recently retired Senior Business Correspondent (and sometime Executive Producer),
ABC Radio National Breakfast


“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia


“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies


Request Speaking Engagement

VIDEO

Most Recent Multimedia


TESTIMONIALS

What Others Say


Australian Minister for Housing, the Hon. Clare O'Neill MP on ABC Q&A, September 2024

“We are lucky as a State to have an economist of your calibre willing to readily make yourself available to give us a clea r perception of where we are at and the direction we need to go for a better future”
Diplomatic Representative, August 2024

“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

Read more


WHAT'S NEW

Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations


Widening the Gap – An Intergenerational Lens on Wealth Inequality in Australia
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, The Australian Economy
12th December 2024


How Victoria became one of Australia’s ‘poor states’
Economic Policies, News, Publications, The Australian Economy
25th November 2024


Elections and economies – the US and Australia
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy
23rd November 2024


Opening Statement to Senate Select Committee on the Tasmanian Freight Equalization Scheme
Economic Policies, Tasmania
13th November 2024


“Hiding in Plain Sight” – $180 billion of spending over four years.
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy, Topics
11th November 2024


‘Tasmanian Money Matters’ – Tasmania’s Economy and Public Finances
Economic Policies, Tasmania
3rd October 2024


Challenges and Opportunities for Australian Agriculture
Commodities, The Australian Economy
1st October 2024


Negative Gearing
Economic Policies, Housing, News, Recent Media Interview, Taxation
26th September 2024


Will Anthony Albanese succeed where Bill Shorten failed in making changes to the taxation treatment of property investment?
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, Taxation
26th September 2024


‘Super for housing’ is a souped-up first home owners grants scheme – and it won’t help any more than first home owners grants have
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing
24th September 2024


‘Super for Housing’ – a Thoroughly Bad Idea
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing, The Australian Economy, Topics
19th September 2024


A ‘path back to surplus’ for the Tasmanian Budget? Not really
Tasmania
17th September 2024


What’s happening in the economy – nationally and in Tasmania
Economic Policies, Tasmania, The Australian Economy
13th September 2024


LINKS

Useful Links


Below is a list of links I’ve found useful under the following broad topics

Read more