SAUL ESLAKE

Economist

SAUL ESLAKE

‘Welcome to my website …
I’m an independent economist, consultant, speaker,
and Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania’

Negative gearing reform ‘essential’ to improve housing affordability: Saul Eslake


Housing, News, Taxation | 10th April 2017

Michael Janda |RN Breakfast ABC News | 10th April 2017

Interview with ABC Business Reporter Michael Janda on Monday 10th April 2017

Negative gearing reform ‘essential’ to improve housing affordability: Saul Eslake

Scaling back negative gearing or capital gains tax concessions for property investment is “essential” to improve housing affordability for first home buyers, independent economist Saul Eslake has argued.

While applauding some of the housing affordability measures outlined by Treasurer Scott Morrison in his speech to the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) this morning, Mr Eslake said cutting back negative gearing tax breaks was the number one solution to lifting home ownership rates amongst younger Australians.

“First of all, by reducing the competition which would-be first home buyers face from others who get their interest bill subsidised or who are in otherwise advantaged by the tax system, particularly investors,” he told the ABC’s RN Breakfast program.

Mr Morrison used his speech to rule out changes to negative gearing, which allows investors to deduct interest and other costs related to their properties against their other income for income tax purposes when those costs exceed their rental revenue.

The Treasurer argued such changes would push up rents if investors pulled out of the market, and could lead to an economic decline if property prices fell sharply.

Property groups argue negative gearing is primarily the domain of the middle class, but the data do not support that.
He also argued that it is mainly small-scale investors on moderate incomes that utilise the negative gearing tax deductions.

However, Mr Eslake said that was a major inconsistency in the Treasurer’s arguments in favour of retaining negative gearing unchanged.

“There’s a certain irony in the Treasurer on the one hand saying negative gearing is OK because lots of nurses, teachers and police do it, but in the very same speech bemoaning the fact that nurses and teachers in particular are unable to buy houses in the communities which they serve,” he said.

Increase in housing supply also needed

Mr Eslake said limiting negative gearing and/or reducing the capital gains tax discount is key to improving housing affordability.

“I believe they are an essential part of making housing more affordable for people who don’t already own at least one property,” he said.

“They’re not a magic bullet, they need to be accompanied by other measures which will boost supply.”

Forget affordability, Michael Janda asks why the hell anyone in Gen Y would want to buy a home right now.
While critical of the Treasurer’s continued refusal to consider curtailing negative gearing, Mr Eslake acknowledged some positives out of his speech.

“Some of the things Mr Morrison is proposing in relation, for example, to the bond aggregator based on the UK model of facilitating the raising of debt by not-for-profit housing providers in order to provide more affordable rental housing is an important measure to boost supply,” he opined.

Mr Eslake added that state and local government planning changes to encourage development, and various proposals to encourage older people to downsize to free-up the supply of family-sized houses, would also increase the supply of housing and put downward pressure on property prices.

Eslake attacks super bad idea

Responding to reports in News Limited papers that the Government is still considering some form of scheme to allow first home buyers to divert their superannuation contributions to a housing deposit, Mr Eslake said it was a bad idea on multiple fronts.

“The history of the last 50 years shows that anything which allows people to spend more buying a home than they otherwise would … ultimately results not in more people owning homes but in homes becoming more expensive,” he said.

“That is, the benefits accrue primarily to those who already own homes, rather than those who don’t but would like to.”

Allowing superannuation to be used for home deposits would facilitate a great intergenerational theft, argues Michael Janda.
Mr Eslake recently wrote a report highlighting how an increasing proportion of retirees were using their superannuation savings to finish paying off their home loans.

However, he said that allowing people to access super to put towards housing earlier in their life would not alleviate that situation and may even leave people with less money to clear their mortgage debts at retirement.

“It will also of course mean that those people save less through superannuation over their working lives and a result, because of the impact of compound interest, will end up poorer in retirement than they otherwise would have been,” he added.

SPEAKING ENGAGEMENT

Speaking Engagement | Boardroom Advisory | Commissioned Report | Expert Witness



Saul Eslake spoke to Zurich Australia executives and staff at their ‘Accelerate’ conference in Sydney on 9th May 2024, covering short- and longer-term trends in major ‘advanced’ economies, China, India and Australia, with a bit of geo-politics thrown in.



“You are the best economic thinker in the country hands down”

Sheryle Bagwell, recently retired Senior Business Correspondent (and sometime Executive Producer),
ABC Radio National Breakfast


“Just want to congratulate you Saul on the unbelievably good set of slides you just presented, possibly the best I have ever seen. You have set the bar very high.”

Dr Joe Flood, Adjunct Fellow, RMIT University, Pandemicia


“Thank you very much for your excellent presentation for the Economic Society today. It is always a great pleasure to hear your eloquent, up-to-date and comprehensive talks.”

Andrew Trembath, economist, Victorian and Australian Government agencies


Request Speaking Engagement

WHAT'S NEW

Most Recent Articles, Talks and Presentations


Have we passed ‘peak China’? (and might a big fall in the RMB be on the horizon?)
Asian Economies, The Global Economy
11th July 2024


‘The Big Picture’
Asian Economies, Economic Policies, Economic Video, The Australian Economy, The Global Economy
22nd June 2024


ATO’s Latest Taxation Statistics – June 2024
News, Recent Media Interview, Taxation
20th June 2024


Other central banks are cutting rates, why isnt the RBA?
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
13th June 2024


Interest Rate and Inflation – Where to now?
Economic Policies, News, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
8th June 2024


The pros and cons of cutting immigration
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Recent Media Interview, The Australian Economy
7th June 2024


A post-Budget conversation
Economic Policies, The Australian Economy
16th May 2024


The 2024-25 Australian Government Budget – An Assessment
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, The Australian Economy
15th May 2024


Upcoming Federal Budget with Laura Jayes
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy
13th May 2024


Preview of the 2024-25 Federal Budget
Economic Policies, News, The Australian Economy
11th May 2024


The WA GST deal – the worst public policy decision of the 21st century thus far – Address to the National Press Club
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies
8th May 2024


The implications of Australia’s higher-than-expected March quarter inflation numbers
News, The Australian Economy
25th April 2024


‘A distinctive part of life in Australia’ The Declining Dream of Homeownership
Australian Society and Politics, Economic Policies, Housing
17th April 2024


Could China have a currency crisis at some point in the next 2-5 years?
Asian Economies, The Global Economy, Topics
16th April 2024


VIDEO

Recent Presentations


See more


TESTIMONIALS

What Others Say


“You are one of the best at what you do in the world”
Gail Fosler, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, New York, December 2002

“I have never known an economist to have such a knowledge of world economic facts and to be able to bring to bear so much information in answering a question without notice”
Charles Goode, Chairman, ANZ Bank, July 2009

“Saul Eslake is … a highly regarded independent economist with the highest degree of integrity"
John Durie, Columnist, The Australian, July 2009

“… one of the few people in this world who can have so many oranges up in the air at the same time but still manage to catch them"
Andrew Clark, journalist, Australian Financial Review, November 2008

Read more

LINKS

Useful Links