Publications
Here you can find articles or essays which I have written and which have been published elsewhere
Spoiler alert: we’re in a recession, even if it’s not ‘official’
Publications, The Australian Economy | 31st August 2021Jessica Irvine, senior economics columnist with the Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age newspapers, discusses Saul’s views on the meaning of the term ‘recession’ and whether Australia is once again in one now
Rebuilding the performing arts: an economist weighs in
Publications, The Arts | 21st August 2021The Arts Hub’s article on Saul’s recent keynote address to Australian Performing Arts Market’s ‘Gathering’
Is Australia having a Second Recession?
Australian Society and Politics, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 16th August 2021A recession is commonly defined as two or more quarters of negative growth in real GDP. But that’s a silly rule – and it isn’t used in the US, where the body which officially delineates recessions last month said that the 2020 recession lasted just two months. If the bushfires of late 2019 and early […]
Reflections on the 2021 Intergenerational Report
Economic Policies, Publications, Taxation, The Australian Economy | 15th August 2021The 2021 IGR, released some six weeks ago, suggests that Australia will be running budget deficits for the next 40 years. But that’s only because of the quite arbitrary assumption that tax collections will remain ‘capped’ at 23.9% of GDP, forever more. There’s no reason why that should be the case.
‘Pop goes the rental’
Economic Policies, Housing, Publications | 26th July 2021Column published in The Saturday Paper on 24th July examining the reasons behind, and consequences of, Australia’s seemingly unstoppable housing price escalator (the headline was chosen by the editor)
Hiding behind the ‘health advice’
Australian Society and Politics, Publications | 14th June 2021Op-ed article published by the Australian Financial Review arguing that the time is fast approaching when the Government can no longer defer decisions on (for example) how long to keep Australia’s borders closed to “health advice” without also giving at least some weight to other considerations (also available here)
How Victoria became one of Australia’s ‘poorer’ states over the past 10 years
Publications, The Australian Economy | 4th June 2021Op-ed article published in the Melbourne Age and Sydney Morning Herald newspapers on 4th June 2021 outlining how Victoria’s economy has come to depend to a much greater extent on population growth than that of any other Australian state or territory, and the possible consequences for Victoria’s medium-term economic outlook given the way its mis-handling […]
Victoria’s economic performance over the past decade
Economic Policies, News, Publications, The Australian Economy | 31st May 2021The Australian Financial Review’s newly-appointed Economics Editor John Kehoe had a front-page piece about the performance of Victoria’s economy, based in part on interviews with me, on 31st May 2021. Here is a set of charts illustrating the points I was making.